U.S. Crime Fell in 2025, but Jacksonville Homicides Rose 25%: What New Federal Numbers Show

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. - Serious violent crime and property crime declined nationally in 2025, according to new federal data released Monday, Oct. 26, but Jacksonville recorded a 25% increase in homicides. The Jacksonville Sheriff's Office reported 79 homicides in 2025, compared with 63 in 2024, even as the city's overall violent and property crime totals declined. The contrast highlights how local homicide trends can move differently from national crime statistics.

The U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics released preliminary findings from the National Crime Victimization Survey showing a 25% decline in violent crime excluding simple assault. The national rate dropped from 9.9 victimizations per 1,000 people age 12 or older in 2024 to 7.4 in 2025. Property victimization also declined significantly, falling 19% during the same period.

Jacksonville experienced declines in several major crime categories, according to Jacksonville Sheriff's Office data submitted to the FBI. Violent offenses fell 7.7%, while property offenses declined 17.1%. However, the city's homicide increase contrasted with a separate federal report showing a 17% decline in the national homicide rate.

National Crime Survey Shows Major Declines

The National Crime Victimization Survey measures crimes experienced by Americans, including offenses never reported to law enforcement. Researchers completed 101,980 household interviews and interviewed 152,150 people for the 2025 survey. The survey covers residents age 12 and older and provides a different perspective from police crime reports.

Aggravated assault showed one of the largest national declines, falling 31% from 4.5 victimizations per 1,000 people in 2024 to 3.1 in 2025. The broader category of violent crime excluding simple assault, which includes rape or sexual assault, robbery and aggravated assault, declined 25%. Those findings indicate fewer victimizations involving these offenses compared with the previous year.

The broader violent crime category, including simple assault, showed a smaller change. Its rate moved from 28.7 victimizations per 1,000 people in 2024 to 25.7 in 2025, representing approximately 7.5 million violent victimizations nationwide. However, the Bureau of Justice Statistics did not identify that overall decline as statistically significant, and simple assault remained nearly unchanged at 18.8 compared with 18.3 per 1,000.

Property crime showed more consistent national decreases across categories. Property victimization declined from 138.0 to 111.2 incidents per 1,000 households, representing approximately 14.9 million victimizations in 2025. Burglary or trespassing fell 25%, motor vehicle theft dropped 30%, and other household theft declined 19%.

In a Justice Department announcement accompanying the findings, Associate Attorney General Stanley Woodward said, "This report is proof that President Trump's 'Make America Safe Again' agenda is working." The statement followed the release of the preliminary federal survey results. The Bureau of Justice Statistics plans to release its final 2025 estimates in 2027.

Jacksonville Crime Compared With National Figures

The Jacksonville Sheriff's Office reported fewer violent and property offenses to the FBI in 2025 than in 2024. The agency's violent offense total dropped from 5,676 to 5,239, a decrease of 437 offenses. Property offenses declined from 26,445 to 21,927, representing 4,518 fewer reported offenses.

Homicides followed a different pattern during the same period. Jacksonville recorded 79 homicides in 2025, compared with 63 the previous year, an increase of 16 cases, or approximately 25%. Nevertheless, the 2025 total remained substantially below the 128 homicides recorded in 2023.

The following comparison combines national victimization survey findings, federal homicide estimates and Jacksonville Sheriff's Office crime reports. National survey figures use rates per 1,000 people or households, while Jacksonville figures represent reported offense counts. These differences mean the figures can illustrate trends but should not be treated as directly equivalent measurements.

National Homicides Declined While Jacksonville's Increased

A separate Bureau of Justice Statistics report released Oct. 14 estimated that 14,660 people were victims of homicide nationwide in 2025. That represented a homicide rate of 4.3 per 100,000 residents, down 17% from 5.2 in 2024. The national rate also stood 30% below the 2023 figure of 6.1 per 100,000.

The federal homicide report provided additional details about the offenses. Approximately 76% of homicides nationwide involved a firearm. Authorities cleared approximately 54% of homicides by arrest, according to the report.

Florida's estimated homicide rate was slightly lower than the national figure. The Bureau of Justice Statistics estimated 940 homicides statewide in 2025, representing 4.0 per 100,000 residents. However, the agency reported a root mean square error of plus or minus 158 homicides for Florida, indicating substantial uncertainty around the statewide estimate.

Jacksonville's reported homicide increase stands out against those national figures, although its longer-term trend provides additional context. The Jacksonville Sheriff's Office recorded 128 homicides in 2023, followed by 63 in 2024 and 79 in 2025. The agency also reported clearing 62 homicide cases in 2025, although those clearances can include cases from previous years.

Why the Numbers Differ

The national victimization survey and FBI police statistics measure crime differently. The National Crime Victimization Survey asks residents about crimes they experienced, including incidents never reported to police, while FBI agency figures count crimes reported to law enforcement. The national survey also excludes homicide because its methodology relies on interviews with victims.

Jacksonville's FBI figures reflect offenses reported by the Jacksonville Sheriff's Office, which serves most of Duval County and covers approximately 1,008,920 residents in the FBI population data. Those reported totals may differ from figures the Sheriff's Office announces independently. Monthly FBI figures showed violent offense totals ranging from 395 to 472 during 2025, without obvious reporting gaps.

The national survey also underwent important methodological changes that affect how researchers interpret its findings. The Bureau of Justice Statistics fully adopted a redesigned survey in January 2025 and used redesigned survey estimates for the 2024 comparisons. The agency says estimates from the redesigned survey cannot be directly compared with figures from the older survey used from 1992 through 2024.

A lapse in federal funding also affected the survey's collection schedule. Researchers conducted no interviews during October and Nov. 2025, and the Bureau of Justice Statistics adjusted its statistical weights to account for the missing months. The agency considers the current results preliminary and expects to publish final figures in 2027.

What the Findings Mean for Jacksonville

Jacksonville's 2025 figures show declines in overall violent offenses and property offenses alongside an increase in homicides. Those results are not contradictory because homicide represents a separate category within the larger crime picture. A city can record fewer offenses overall while experiencing an increase in a particular category.

The longer-term figures also show that Jacksonville's 2025 homicide count remained below its 2023 level, despite increasing from 2024. Nationally, homicide rates declined across both comparisons, falling from 6.1 in 2023 to 4.3 in 2025. The federal data therefore shows a national decline alongside a more mixed local pattern.

How We Did This

Jax Times reviewed the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics report "Preliminary Victimization Estimates from the NCVS, 2025," by Jennifer L. Truman and Susannah N. Tapp, released Oct. 26, 2026. We also used the bureau's "Homicide Victimization in the United States, 2025," released Oct. 14, including its Florida estimates, and Jacksonville Sheriff's Office crime data reported through the FBI Crime Data Explorer and retrieved Oct. 26. We compared 2024 and 2025 figures, included 2023 figures where available for context, and distinguished between national survey victimization rates, federal homicide estimates and Jacksonville police-reported offense totals.