Where the 6-2 Jaguars Stand in the AFC Playoff Race: Seeding, Tiebreakers and the 9 Games Left, With Pittsburgh and Houston in December

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. - The Jacksonville Jaguars are 6-2 at the midpoint of their season, and they hold the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoff standings, according to ESPN. Their 33-10 win at Baltimore on Thursday, Nov. 5, left them 3.5 games ahead of second-place Houston (2-5) in the AFC South. With nine games left, the question is no longer whether Jacksonville is in the race but where it will be seeded.

The standings below reflect games through Thursday night and were checked on Saturday, Nov. 7. Most AFC teams play on Sunday and Monday, so the order around the Jaguars will move before their next game. Jacksonville's own record will stay at 6-2 until it plays at Tennessee on Sunday, Nov. 15.

How the NFL playoff field works

Seven teams from each conference make the playoffs. The four division winners are seeded 1 through 4 by record, and the three best remaining teams fill seeds 5 through 7 as wild cards. Only the No. 1 seed gets a first-round bye, which is why the gap between the top seed and the next three matters as much as making the field.

The No. 2, 3 and 4 seeds host wild-card games, so a division title guarantees at least one home playoff game. That would matter for Jacksonville fans, because the team has played only three of its eight games in Jacksonville so far, according to ESPN, with two home games played in London. Three of the nine remaining games are at EverBank Stadium.

The AFC as of Nov. 7

The seeds come from ESPN's playoff standings, and the records match NFL.com's standings through the games of Nov. 5. Seeds 1 through 4 always go to the division leaders, and the wild cards are seeded behind them. Kansas City, for example, sits fifth at 5-2 because Denver leads the AFC West.

Tiebreakers that already matter

Three division leaders are tied at 6-2, and ESPN's standings rank Denver ahead of Jacksonville and Jacksonville ahead of Pittsburgh on conference winning percentage. Denver's 3-1 AFC record (.750) edges Jacksonville's 5-2 (.714), and Jacksonville's mark tops Pittsburgh's 3-2 (.600). Denver also beat the Jaguars 20-13 on Sept. 20, which would decide a two-team tie between them if the season ended with the Broncos and Jaguars even.

Jacksonville already owns head-to-head wins over three other teams in the top eight. It beat New England 35-6, Cincinnati 22-17 and Cleveland 34-10, according to ESPN, and head-to-head results are the first tiebreaker between two teams. The Steelers are the big unresolved one, and that matchup comes to Jacksonville on Monday night, Dec. 14.

Inside the division, the Jaguars are 1-1 after beating Indianapolis 42-7 and losing to Houston 34-31 on Oct. 18, according to ESPN. The rematch with the Texans is Dec. 20 in Houston. A Houston sweep would give the Texans the head-to-head edge in any division tie, which is the main reason a 3.5-game lead is not yet comfortable.

The 9 games left

Schedule, kickoff times and TV come from jaguars.com and ESPN. Opponent records are from NFL.com as of Nov. 7. The team lists the Week 17 and 18 dates and times as to be determined.

The stretch splits into two halves. Four of the next five games come against teams with losing or near-.500 records, including two meetings with the 1-7 Titans. Then come Chicago and Pittsburgh, both 6-2, followed by the Texans, a prime-time trip to Dallas and two division-closing games.

What history says about 6-2

A 6-2 start has not guaranteed the Jaguars anything. The franchise has started 6-2 twice before, according to ChampsOrChumps: the 1998 team finished 11-5 and lost in the divisional round, and the 2023 team finished 9-8 and missed the playoffs. Neither matched the 1999 team, which opened 7-1, finished 14-2 and reached the AFC Championship Game.

This team's margins look different from those of the 2023 group. The win over Baltimore was Jacksonville's fourth this season by 23 or more points, and ESPN Research says it is the fifth team since 1999 with four such wins in its first eight games. Three of the previous four reached the Super Bowl, according to ESPN, though those results say nothing certain about this season.

The Jaguars have also scored 30 or more points five times in eight games, a first in franchise history, according to ESPN. They lost three starters to season-ending injuries between Weeks 5 and 8: left tackle Anton Harrison, nose tackle DaVon Hamilton and safety Eric Murray. Linebacker Foye Oluokun told ESPN the focus is on "who's playing the best in December."

What to watch before Nov. 15

The Jaguars are idle until their Nov. 15 game at Tennessee, but the teams around them are not. Buffalo, Denver, Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Cincinnati are all within a game of Jacksonville, and New England and Cleveland are one game back. Their results this week will reshape the seeding table above, even though the Jaguars' record cannot change until they play.