What Polls and Forecasters Say About Florida's Nov. 3 Races and 3 Amendments

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. - Florida's Nov. 3 election includes an open governor's race, a special election for U.S. Senate, an attorney general contest and three proposed constitutional amendments that would change state financial and property tax rules. Polling averages updated Oct. 31 show Republican Byron Donalds ahead of Democrat David Jolly in the governor's race and Republican Ashley Moody ahead of Democrat Angie Nixon in the Senate contest. National election forecasters generally give Republicans an advantage in both races, while publicly available polling on the constitutional amendments is limited to one survey on Amendment 3.

The figures are not election results, and polling leads do not guarantee an outcome. Surveys can miss the final vote, particularly when differences between candidates are close to a poll's margin of error, and forecasting ratings represent assessments rather than counted ballots. Election results are reported after polls close on Tuesday, Nov. 3.

Governor's Race: Donalds Leads Most Polls, Forecasters Differ on Rating

The race to succeed Florida's current governor includes Republican Byron Donalds and his running mate, Bryan Avila, and Democrat David Jolly and his running mate, Gwen Graham. Libertarian Scott Jewett and several independent candidates also appear in the contest. Polling organizations have focused primarily on Donalds and Jolly, with most recent surveys showing Donalds ahead but some showing a smaller margin, a tie or a Jolly advantage.

Five polling aggregators placed Donalds between 48.0% and 48.8% and Jolly between 44.0% and 44.3%, according to averages updated Oct. 31. The combined average of those figures was 48.5% for Donalds and 44.2% for Jolly, a difference of 4.3 percentage points. The numbers reflect the available polling rather than actual votes, and differences in the surveys used by each organization can produce different averages.

The polling averages were:

270toWin, Oct. 12-29 polls: Donalds 48.8%, Jolly 44.3%.

Decision Desk HQ: Donalds 48.0%, Jolly 44.2%.

FiftyPlusOne: Donalds 48.7%, Jolly 44.3%.

RealClearPolitics: Donalds 48.6%, Jolly 44.0%.

Silver Bulletin: Donalds 48.4%, Jolly 44.3%.

Average updated Oct. 31: Donalds 48.5%, Jolly 44.2%.

Individual polls show more variation than those averages. Targoz Market Research, in a survey listed Nov. 2, reported Donalds at 50% and Jolly at 43% among 1,200 likely voters, with a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points. Stetson University surveyed 852 registered voters Oct. 26-30 and found Donalds at 51% and Jolly at 45%, with a margin of error of 3.6 points.

Other recent surveys showed narrower differences between the candidates. InsiderAdvantage's Oct. 30 poll of 1,200 likely voters had Donalds at 49% and Jolly at 45%, while a St. Pete Polls survey dated Oct. 28 found Donalds at 48% and Jolly at 46%. Those surveys reported margins of error of 2.8 and 3.2 percentage points, respectively.

The Siena College/New York Times poll dated Oct. 28 showed Donalds at 48% and Jolly at 44% among 813 likely voters, with a margin of error of 3.9 points. Echelon Insights reported a 50% to 44% Donalds advantage in its Oct. 27 survey of 515 likely voters, with a margin of error of 5 points. Workbench Strategy, identified as a Democratic firm, found Jolly ahead 48% to 46% in a survey conducted Oct. 18-22, while Change Research, also a Democratic firm, reported a 47% to 47% tie Oct. 12.

National forecasting organizations also differ in how they describe the race. Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rated it Lean Republican on Oct. 29, while Sabato's Crystal Ball used the same rating Oct. 27. Decision Desk HQ, Fox News and NBC News rated it Lean Republican on Nov. 1, while Silver Bulletin classified it as Likely Republican that day and RealClearPolitics rated it a Tossup on Oct. 30.

These ratings describe the forecasters' assessments, not certified outcomes. The different classifications show that organizations do not apply identical judgments to the available information. Polling margins, survey dates and differences between likely-voter and registered-voter samples remain important when comparing individual findings.

U.S. Senate: Moody Leads Nixon in Polling Averages

Florida's special U.S. Senate election features Republican incumbent Ashley Moody and Democrat Angie Nixon, with independent Neil Gillespie included in some polling. Moody was appointed to the Senate after Marco Rubio became secretary of state. The race has attracted several statewide surveys and ratings from national election forecasters.

Polling averages updated Oct. 31 put Moody at 49.4% and Nixon at 43.4%, a difference of 6 percentage points. Each of the five listed polling aggregators showed Moody ahead, although the size of the advantage varied. The averages are based on surveys rather than ballots counted in the special election.

The polling averages were:

270toWin, Oct. 16-29 polls: Moody 50.4%, Nixon 44.4%.

Decision Desk HQ: Moody 48.2%, Nixon 42.5%.

FiftyPlusOne: Moody 49.6%, Nixon 43.6%.

RealClearPolitics: Moody 49.7%, Nixon 43.4%.

Silver Bulletin: Moody 49.2%, Nixon 43.3%.

Average updated Oct. 31: Moody 49.4%, Nixon 43.4%.

Stetson University's Oct. 26-30 survey of 852 registered voters found Moody at 49% and Nixon at 45%, with a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points. InsiderAdvantage's Oct. 28-29 survey of 1,200 likely voters showed Moody at 49% and Nixon at 43%, with a margin of error of 2.8 points. St. Pete Polls found Moody at 49% and Nixon at 45% in its Oct. 25-27 survey of 916 likely voters, with a margin of error of 3.2 points.

Other surveys also showed Moody leading, although one found a particularly narrow difference. The New York Times/Siena poll conducted Oct. 19-25 placed Moody at 50% and Nixon at 44%, while Workbench Strategy, a Democratic firm, found Moody at 49% and Nixon at 47% during Oct. 18-22. A University of North Florida survey conducted Oct. 12-19 among 1,471 likely voters reported Moody at 49% and Nixon at 45%, with a margin of error of 2.8 points.

Forecasters generally place the Senate contest in a more Republican-leaning category than the governor's race. Cook Political Report rated it Likely Republican on Oct. 30, while Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball used that rating Oct. 29. Fox News rated the contest Solid Republican on Nov. 1, while RealClearPolitics used Lean Republican on Oct. 31.

The surveys and ratings point in the same general direction, but they cannot establish the eventual outcome. A polling average can differ from the final vote, and a candidate's advantage in one survey can be affected by its stated margin of error. The final reported election totals, rather than the polling averages, determine the result.

Attorney General: Uthmeier Ahead in Two Available Polls

Florida's attorney general contest features Republican incumbent James Uthmeier and Democrat Jose Javier Rodriguez. Two St. Pete Polls surveys show Uthmeier ahead, with the more recent survey reporting a five-point advantage. Sabato's Crystal Ball rated the contest Lean Republican on Oct. 29.

The St. Pete Polls survey conducted Oct. 25-27 found Uthmeier at 49%, Rodriguez at 44% and 7% undecided. That survey included 916 likely voters and reported a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points. An earlier survey from the same polling organization, conducted Oct. 5-7, showed Uthmeier at 45% and Rodriguez at 43%.

The available figures show different margins in the two surveys, but do not establish an election result. The 7% undecided figure in the more recent survey is also part of the reported findings.

Amendment 1: Rainy-Day Fund Expansion, No Public Poll Found

Florida's first statewide constitutional amendment would increase the maximum size of the state's Budget Stabilization Fund, commonly described as the rainy-day fund. The proposed cap would increase from 10% to 25% of general revenue, according to the amendment information reported by NBC6 on Oct. 26-27 and the Tampa Bay Times report carried by the Citrus County Chronicle on Sept. 27. Each year, the Legislature would generally transfer the lesser of $750 million or the amount needed to reach the 25% cap, unless specified conditions apply.

The proposal would allow the Legislature to withdraw money for critical state needs. The Chronicle reported that withdrawals would require a two-thirds vote and that the Legislature could suspend the transfer during difficult financial years.

Supporters identified in the reporting include House Speaker Daniel Perez and the Republican Party of Florida, while Rep. Lawrence McClure sponsored the proposal. Gov. Ron DeSantis criticized the plan as "foolish" on social media and vetoed $750 million that the Legislature had set aside for the fund in 2025. Some Democrats also raised concerns that the proposal could limit the state's financial flexibility.

No public poll on Amendment 1 was found. That means there is no reported public support percentage from those sources to compare with the 60% approval requirement. The absence of polling does not establish whether the amendment has majority support or whether it would pass.

Amendment 2: Agricultural Property Tax Exemption, No Public Poll Found

Amendment 2 would exempt certain tangible personal property from property taxation when it is habitually located on land classified as agricultural. The exemption would cover qualifying property used to produce agricultural products or support agritourism and owned by the landowner or leaseholder. According to the amendment reporting, the change would first apply to tax years beginning Jan. 1, 2027.

The Tampa Bay Times report carried by the Citrus County Chronicle estimated that the proposed exemption would reduce local government revenue by about $31 million in its first year. The estimated reduction would increase to approximately $32 million in the second year and $34 million in the third. Those amounts are estimates of effects on local government revenue, not measured reductions from a policy already in effect.

Supporters include Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, the Florida Farm Bureau Federation and the Republican Party of Florida. Rep. Anna Eskamani, a Democrat from Orlando, was the only lawmaker to vote against placing the proposal on the ballot, according to the reporting. She cited concerns about the effect on rural counties with fewer financial resources.

No public poll on Amendment 2 was found. Like the other statewide constitutional amendments, it needs at least 60% of the votes cast on the measure for approval. Without public polling figures, the sources do not provide a basis for describing the amendment as likely to pass or fail.

Amendment 3: Property Tax Changes and the Only Available Amendment Poll

Amendment 3 would change the homestead exemption for non-school property taxes and reduce the annual limit on assessment increases for non-homestead property. The proposed homestead exemption would increase to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, with inflation adjustments afterward. The annual cap on increases in non-homestead property assessments would decline from 10% to 5%.

The measure would also restrict the purposes for which cities and counties could use property taxes. The listed uses include public safety, education and schools, infrastructure, natural resources, bond debt service, employee retirement benefits, and government operations and administration. The proposed effective date is Jan. 1, 2027, while people who were not Florida residents on Dec. 31, 2026 would initially receive the existing exemption.

The Tampa Bay Times report carried by the Citrus County Chronicle said state economists projected that the changes could cost cities and counties nearly $12 billion by 2031. Supporters identified in the reporting include the Republican Party of Florida and Florida Realtors, while Gov. DeSantis originally pushed the plan and said he would vote yes. Opponents include the Florida Sheriffs Association, firefighters, the Florida League of Cities, the Florida Hospital Association and children's services councils.

The Sheriffs Association warned that the proposal could stretch resources and lengthen response times. The opposition concerns focus in part on the consequences of reducing revenue available to local governments. Those concerns and the revenue projections are separate from the polling figures measuring public support for the measure.

An NBC6/Telemundo Station Group survey conducted by Mason-Dixon from Sept. 28 to Oct. 1 found 55% support for Amendment 3, with 26% opposed and 19% undecided. The survey included 625 registered voters who said they were likely to vote and had a reported margin of error of up to 4 percentage points. NBC6 and Telemundo reported the survey in early October.

The 55% support level was five percentage points below the 60% approval threshold required for a Florida constitutional amendment. However, the survey also found 19% undecided, and the polling was conducted in late September and early October rather than immediately before Election Day. The findings are not a forecast and do not establish whether Amendment 3 would pass or fail.

The survey also asked respondents about their reasons for supporting or opposing the proposal. Among supporters, 49% said property taxes were too high, while 55% of opponents said they were concerned about reductions in local services. Those percentages describe the stated views of surveyed supporters and opponents, not the positions of all Florida voters.

What the Forecasts and Polling Gaps Mean

The available polling shows Republican candidates ahead in most recent governor and Senate surveys, while the attorney general polling also shows a Republican advantage. National forecasters generally rate those contests as favoring Republicans to varying degrees, although RealClearPolitics rated the governor's race a Tossup on Oct. 30. Differences among forecasters and surveys are part of the information available before ballots are counted.

The three constitutional amendments have a different information picture. No public polls were found for Amendments 1 and 2, and the only identified survey for Amendment 3 was conducted Sept. 28 to Oct. 1. All three proposals require at least 60% approval, but the available evidence does not establish whether any of them would reach that threshold.

Polls and forecasting ratings are not election results, and polls can miss the eventual vote totals. Margins of error matter, as do the differences between registered-voter and likely-voter surveys and the dates when the polling was conducted. Election results are reported after polls close Nov. 3, providing the actual figures against which the pre-election surveys and ratings can be compared.

For Jacksonville-area readers, the statewide races and constitutional amendments are part of the Florida ballot, while the individual ballot can vary by county. The Duval County Supervisor of Elections provides sample ballot and polling place information at duvalelections.com, and residents of other counties can find their corresponding information through their county elections office. Those resources provide county-specific ballot information separate from statewide polling and forecasting reports.